2018香山论坛青年军官学者研讨会英文发言稿材料

2018香山论坛青年军官学者研讨会英文发言稿材料 <br />trategic cntext and security pririties have a huge impact n internatinal security and strategic studies.Accrding t leading British strategist Lawrence Freedman,in the 1980s,arms cntrl dminated strategic studies in the 1980s,civil war and reginal cnflict in the 1990s,cunter terrrism in the 2000s,but after 2010,great pwerpetitin has gradually returned. <br />As great pwerpetitin disappeared fr almst thirty years,when it returns,many f us try t seek sme wisdm frm histry.Tw years ag,the Brexit vte and Trump’s electin led t the new discussin f the years between the wrld wars,when islatinism cntributed t deteriratin f great pwer relatins and the utbreak f the Secnd Wrld War.In 2018,the release f majr U.S.strategic dcuments and plicy statements,and Pence’s speech n China,has led t unprecedented discussin f the Cld War. <br />Histrical lessns shuld prevent anyne frm being thrilled at the prspect f great pwerpetitin between China and the US.The twentieth century witnessed three waves f lng term great pwerpetitin.Tw f these in the first half f the twentieth century greatly cntributed t the utbreak f the tw Wrld Wars characterized by unprecedented destructin and human suffering.The last ne drve human civilizatin t the verge f ttal destructin and inflicted heavy casualties n the twpetitrs themselves in Krea,Indchina,and Afghanistan.Therefre,participants f great pwerpetitins have t cpe with bth its cst t daily life and the risks f cnflict.During the pastpetitins,decisin makers develped many appraches t managepetitin and crisis,including summits,mediatin,arms cntrl and limitatin,lcalizatin f cnflicts,cnfidence building measures,and crisis management mechanisms.We shuld bear them in mind,and understand bth their effectiveness and limitatins. <br />Nevertheless,the diversity f previus great pwerpetitin als implies that ne shuld avid determinism r superficially embrace ntins like the Thucydides Trap.Cntext and the chices f decisin makers shape the ue fpetitin.As a student f histry,I am cnfused by many ver simplifiedparisns between China and Imperial Germany r the Sviet Unin.As a student f Cld War histry,I als find that the U.S.success results mre frm its dmestic innvatin,strategic adaptatin,and cst management,than ppsing an enemy. <br />Finally,as strategic cntext keeps changing,Cld War experiences shuld nt be a measure f currentpetitin,r we will miss real challenges and pprtunities.Fr example,we shuld nt be preccupied with whether any majr plicy statements in 2018 are similar t thse in 1946 and 1947.Then,the tw sides had nt established a Cld War strategic framewrk such as military alliances and natinal security institutins at hme.Tday,these tls are available;sme f them have already been emplyed and have intensified thepetitin.Speech and statements are still imprtant in reflecting plicy changes,but they matter less than they did 70 years ag.Cld Warpetitin riginated frm and cncentrated n cntinental Eurpe,but the primary securitypetitin between China and the US is taking place in a maritime theater.With regard t technlgy,the recent shck t the INF treaty reminds us f a new nuclear arms race,but we als have t cpe with the impact f new technlgical innvatins such as cyber,uter space,artificial intelligence,and hypersnic weapns.Meanwhile,bth cuntries als face unique pprtunities that did nt exist in the late 1940s.The tw cuntries have strng scial and ecnmic ties.The tw sides shuld wrk hard t identify and address prblems in these ties.But terminating them is ut f questin.Externally,the freign plicy agenda fr the US and China tday is brader than that between the US and the USSR 70 years ag.The cperatin will g beynd mere crisis management,thus cnstantly imprvingmunicatin,and develping new mmentum fr bilateral relatins. <br />The emergence f strategicpetitin between China and the US des nt imply that the tw cuntries will fllw the mdel f previuspetitins.Learning histrical lessns is imprtant t addressplex situatins and avid previus mistakes.Hwever,slely relying n playbks and perceptins based n past experience,such as the Cld War,t interpret and cpe with the currentpetitin is intellectual ipetence and derelictin f duty fr strategicmunities in the 21st century. <br />